Consistent with prior polls, Gov. DeSantis would beat President Joe Biden in key swing states, while former President Trump would lose.

According to a poll just conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of Citizen Awareness Project, Inc., Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would top President Biden or tie in head-to-head matchups in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Michigan

In Michigan, Gov. DeSantis would win a general election against President Biden – 45% to 43%. Former President Trump would lose – 42% to 45% – a net difference of DeSantis +5%.

Some other key data from the Michigan poll: Reviewing the crosstabs, DeSantis leads Biden among independent voters (48%‐36%), Seniors (48%‐45%), and white suburban women (47%‐39%). Trump has a very narrow lead over Biden among independent voters (40%‐36%) and trails Biden among Seniors (41%‐47%) and white suburban women (38%‐44%).

Regionally, DeSantis is running a net 9% higher than Trump against Biden in the Detroit market overall and by a net 16% higher among white voters in the Detroit market.

Looking at a key audience in the ’22 midterm elections, DeSantis wins those who “somewhat” disapprove of Biden by 13%, while Trump loses these voters by 5%.

Supporting Trump in ’24 has already been ruled out by a majority of voters in Michigan. A strong majority of these general election voters (55%) say they would not be likely to vote for Trump, while just 43% say they would be likely to consider him. Fully 46% of voters say they would be likely to vote for DeSantis, with another 46% who say they would not.

Wisconsin

The data tell a similar story in Wisconsin, where DeSantis is tied with President Biden (45%-45%), but Trump trails Biden (43%-47%).

More interesting findings from the Wisconsin poll:

DeSantis leads Biden among independent voters (43%‐41%) while Trump trails Biden among independent voters by 9 points (37%‐46%). Regionally, DeSantis leads Biden in the Milwaukee market (43%‐41%) yet Trump trails Biden in that market (43%‐46%).

Importantly, supporting Trump in ’24 has already been ruled out by a significant majority of voters in Wisconsin. Trump’s unfavorable rating is already at 55%. Further, a strong majority of these general election voters (57%) say they would NOT be likely to vote for Trump, while just 42% say they would be likely to consider him.

Nevada

Finally, the Nevada poll shows DeSantis performing about 4% better versus Biden compared to Trump.

Also consistent with the polls in Michigan and Wisconsin, DeSantis performs better among key voting groups in the Nevada poll:

DeSantis runs slightly better than Trump against Biden among independent voters and among Hispanics.

DeSantis leads Biden among Seniors (47%‐42%), is tied among independent women (40%‐40%), and holds his own in Clark County, trailing by just five points (41%‐46%).

On the other hand, Trump trails Biden among Seniors (46%‐47%), is already far behind among independent women (39%‐48%), and is running double‐digits behind Biden in Clark County (41%‐51%) – showing no improvement from his ten‐point loss there to Biden in 2020.

Even with Biden’s job approval rating underwater (40% approve‐52% disapprove), Trump cannot take advantage. Biden runs six points ahead of his approval rating against Trump, while his ballot position against DeSantis is pretty much in‐line with his approval score.

Importantly, supporting Trump in ’24 has already been ruled out by a significant majority of voters in Nevada. Trump’s unfavorable rating is already at 54%. Further, a strong majority of these general election voters (54%) say they would NOT be likely to vote for Trump.

Background

Public Opinion Strategies conducted the three polls on behalf of Citizen Awareness Project, Inc. on April 17-19, 2023 (Michigan) and April 17-20, 2023 (Nevada and Wisconsin). Each poll surveyed 500 registered voters in the respective state.

Citizen Awareness Project, Inc. is a 501(C)(4) founded to educate citizens and public officials on issues of public policy and to give them the tools necessary to make a difference in their community on issues affecting the public at large, including issues concerning the economy, jobs, taxes and monetary policy, foreign policy, health care policy, and government spending, regulations, and waste. CAP occasionally conducts public polling on issues and voter preferences to gauge how citizens are engaging in their communities and responding to current events.